While major deadly famines have significantly diminished globally and are far less common than in previous eras, they have not been completely erased. The picture presented by Our World in Data is one of immense progress, yet persistent, localized challenges.
Here’s a breakdown of the key developments and interesting datapoints:
Dramatic Decline in Famine Mortality
- Historical Catastrophe: In centuries past, famines were tragically common, often leading to mass mortality from starvation. Data from the World Peace Foundation shows that the 19th century alone is estimated to have seen 100 million deaths from famine.
- Modern Achievement: The second half of the 20th century saw a sharp reduction in famine mortality, reaching “very low levels”. This decline is considered “one of the great unacknowledged triumphs of our lifetime” by famine researcher Alex de Waal.
- Geographic Shift: Large famines have virtually disappeared from certain regions. There hasn’t been a major famine in North or South America since the late 19th century, nor in Europe since the 1940s. Asia, while home to some of the deadliest historical famines like China’s “Great Leap Forward” (estimated 36 million deaths between 1958 and 1962), has seen far fewer lives lost in recent decades.
- Less Deadly When They Occur: When famines do occur today, they are typically far less deadly than their historical counterparts.
Key Developments Driving Progress Our World in Data attributes this monumental shift to a confluence of factors, many of which are interconnected with broader improvements in human well-being:
- Increased Food Supply: Advances in agricultural science have led to significantly higher crop yields, increasing overall food availability per person globally.
- Improved Healthcare and Sanitation: Better health infrastructure and sanitation play a crucial role in preventing deaths during food crises, as most famine deaths are actually due to infectious diseases exacerbated by malnourishment.
- Reduced Extreme Poverty: A substantial reduction in global extreme poverty means populations are more resilient to shocks like localized food shortages. Economic growth has enabled billions to escape the deepest poverty of the past two centuries.
- Increased Trade: Better integrated food markets and international trade help to smooth out localized food shortages by allowing food to be moved from surplus to deficit areas more quickly and affordably.
- Spread of Democracy: A critical insight from Amartya Sen, corroborated by Our World in Data, is that “there has never been a famine in a functioning multiparty democracy”. Democratic governments are incentivized to respond to food crises, and a free press can highlight issues and hold leaders accountable.
- Demographic Transition: Contrary to older Malthusian theories that population growth inevitably leads to famine, Our World in Data shows that overall population growth has occurred alongside a decrease in famine deaths. The world is experiencing a “demographic transition,” where falling death rates are followed by falling birth rates, leading to a new equilibrium driven by development, health, and education, not catastrophe.
Why Famine Persists: The Troubling Side Despite this progress, famine is far from eradicated and remains a deeply troubling issue when it strikes:
- Conflict as the Primary Trigger: Today, major deadly famines are almost invariably linked to conflict, political oppression, corruption, or severe economic mismanagement by autocratic regimes. War disrupts food production, blocks trade routes, spreads disease, and critically, impedes the delivery of humanitarian aid.
- Geographic Concentration: Recent large famines have mostly been confined to Africa. For example, the only large famine recorded in a democracy between 1870 and 2023 occurred in Northeast Nigeria (2016-2019), linked to fighting and restrictions on aid.
- Ongoing Need for Assistance: While global resilience is higher, the numbers of people in need of emergency food assistance reached “unprecedented” levels in recent decades, with estimates of 83 million people in 2017.
In sum, Our World in Data presents a dual reality: humanity has made incredible strides against the scourge of famine, effectively “erasing” its widespread and devastating presence in much of the world. However, it remains a potent threat in areas plagued by conflict and weak governance, serving as a stark reminder that progress is not universal nor guaranteed.